Understanding the Real Returns from “Safe” Investments

Introduction

Many investors prefer to allocate a significant portion of their portfolio to so-called "safe" investments. This approach often stems from a variety of reasons: a cautious approach to market volatility, a focus on preserving savings, or the desire to minimize risk, particularly for those nearing or in retirement. While these investments can safeguard your capital, the idea that they can significantly grow your wealth is often a misconception.

In this article, we’ll examine popular "safe" investment options, their potential pitfalls, and alternative strategies that can better align with long-term financial growth.

What Is a Safe Investment?

The term "safe investment" generally refers to financial instruments with minimal risk of capital loss. These are some of the most commonly recognized options:

  • Guaranteed Investment Certificates (GICs): GICs offer safety and predictable returns. Issued by banks or credit unions, they are insured by organizations like the Canadian Deposit Insurance Corporation. However, they require locking in funds for a fixed period and typically yield modest returns.
  • Treasury Bills (T-Bills): Issued by the Canadian government, T-bills provide a secure investment option. The interest earned is the difference between the purchase price and the face value, paid upon maturity.
  • Government Bonds: These bonds are loans made to federal, provincial, or municipal governments. They guarantee repayment of the principal and interest, offering stability but often lower returns compared to other investments.

The Flaw in “Safe” Investments: Inflation

While safe investments protect your capital, they can fail to outpace inflation, leading to a decline in purchasing power over time. For instance:

  • In 2022, Canada’s inflation rate averaged 6.8%, yet the returns from safe investments lagged significantly behind:
    • GICs yielded around 2%.
  • Canada’s 3-month Treasury Bill yield was 2.82%.
  • Long-term real-return bonds peaked at 1.75%.

Such returns meant investors holding these assets effectively lost 4-5% in real value due to inflation.

Moreover, when GICs and similar instruments are held in non-registered accounts, the income generated is taxed at the highest marginal tax rate, further eroding returns. Over decades, this trend results in either negligible growth or a decrease in real wealth.

Alternatives to “Safe” Investments

A diversified investment strategy can help mitigate risk while enabling long-term growth. Here are some alternatives:

  1. Corporate Bonds:
    • Investment-Grade Bonds: Rated “BBB-” or higher, these bonds balance lower risk with reasonable returns.
  • High-Yield Bonds: Though riskier, these bonds typically provide higher returns compared to government bonds.
  1. Preferred Shares: A hybrid between bonds and regular stocks, preferred shares often yield better returns than bonds and offer priority payouts over common shareholders.
  2. Low-Risk Dividend Stocks: Dividend-paying stocks from stable industries can provide steady income and reduce exposure to market volatility. For example:
  • The S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index, comprising companies with a 25-year track record of increasing dividends, declined only 9% during the 2022 market downturn, compared to the S&P 500’s 18% drop.
  1. Alternative Investments: Emerging opportunities like private credit and private infrastructure offer returns that are less correlated with stock market fluctuations.

Choosing the Right Investments

The optimal mix of investments will vary based on individual financial goals, timelines, and risk tolerance. A carefully constructed portfolio can balance safety with growth potential, ensuring that your wealth outpaces inflation over time.

Your financial advisor can guide you in selecting investments tailored to your needs, focusing on diversification and long-term growth. With access to a wide range of investment products, they can design a strategy to help you achieve your financial goals while maintaining the level of risk you’re comfortable with.

Conclusion

While "safe" investments can play a role in protecting your capital, they may not be enough to grow your wealth in the face of inflation. Diversifying your portfolio with alternative investment options, such as corporate bonds, dividend stocks, and emerging financial instruments, can help you achieve a balance between security and growth.

To safeguard your savings from inflation and achieve your long-term goals, consult with your financial advisor. They can provide tailored recommendations to align your investments with your financial plan and ensure that your wealth remains resilient against economic challenges. If you don’t have an advisor, consider connecting with one to explore your options.

This article is written for educational purposes.

Should you have any inquiries, please do not hesitate to contact us at (905) 836-8755, via email at [email protected], or by visiting our website at www.taxpartners.ca.

Tax Partners has been operational since 1981 and is recognized as one of the leading tax and accounting firms in North America. Contact us today for a FREE initial consultation appointment.

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